There is always a danger when a TV show or a movie line goes and makes a spinoff off of what worked before. Yes, we all know of spinoffs and “side stories” and even “origin stories” that have worked in both medium, but the danger is still there. Not the least of which is that if you don’t play it right, and you don’t make it unique enough, people aren’t going to watch it or care about it. And that might just be why not many are projecting Fantastic Beasts 3 to do well at the box office.
The main Harry Potter movies were of course based on the books. But the Fantastic Beasts line was/is a story completely new crafted by JK Rowling. And you’d think that this would be a sure thing given her success with the books. But…not so much. In fact, the first two movies did ok, but nowhere near as good as the Harry Potter films. In fact, the second one, “The Crimes of Grindelwald” was the lowest-grossing film in the franchise.
And now, Box Office Pro is projecting that Fantastic Beasts 3 (AKA The Secrets of Dumbledore) is projected to do even LESS than the previous movie. Stating that domestically it might not even make $150 million dollars. That’s not good for a franchise that is supposed to be a “moneymaker”.
And we can’t say this is solely because of the pandemic because The Batman and Spider-Man No Way Home have done incredibly well.
The difference here is that fans aren’t as engaged in these movies as the main Harry Potter line. The tone is different, the style is different, and the story is…mixed at best. The reviews haven’t been much better either from fans or critics.
Things could change, obviously, but at present…it’s not looking good.